Predicting the future is a dangerous occupation. Few people can claim as much success as Arthur C. Clarke, the famous science and science fiction author. Thanks to the BBC and the Australian Broadcasting Company, we can see what Sir Arthur thought about the future in 1964 and then ten years later in 1974.
Perhaps his best-known prediction was that of communication satellites, but he called quite a few other things, too. Like all prognosticators, he didn’t bat a thousand, and he missed a wrinkle or two, but overall, he has a very impressive track record.
Horizon
In the 1964 BBC show, Horizon: The Knowledge Explosion, Clarke himself talked about how hard it is to predict the future. He then goes on to describe ultra-modern cities prior to the year 2000. However, he thought that after the year 2000, we won’t care about cities. We’ll communicate with each other without regard to location. Shades of the Internet and cell phone!
He clearly saw the work-from-home revolution. However, he also thought that we’d enslave other animals, which–mercifully–didn’t come to pass. His thoughts on computers were much more on point, although we still don’t quite have what he thought we would.
Direct information dumps to your brain are probably not happening anytime soon. Suspended animation isn’t very popular, either. Of course, all of this could still happen, and it would be totally spooky if he’d been 100% right.
To wrap up, he talks about a replicator when K. Eric Drexler was not even ten years old. We won’t say he called out the 3D printer, exactly, but he was on the track.
The Home Computer
Fast forward to 1974. A science reporter brought his son with him to an old-school mainframe room and pointed out to Clarke that in the year 2001, the boy would be an adult. Clarke predicted that the boy would have a computer in his house that would connect to other computers to get all the information he needed.
Once again, Clarke was really interested in being able to work from anywhere in the world. Of course, he moved to Sri Lanka and still managed to work, so maybe he just thought we should all enjoy the same privilege.
Two Years Later
In 1976, Clarke spoke with an AT&T interviewer about the future. He clearly saw the Internet for news and communications with — you guessed it — working from home.
He also brought up the smart watch, another invention to add to his yes column. About the only thing in that interview that we haven’t had luck with yet is contact with extraterrestrials.
Our Guess
We try not to make too many predictions. But we are going to guess that at least some of Clarke’s predictions are yet to come. There is one thing we are pretty sure of, though. When anyone predicts the future — even Clarke — they rarely see the gritty details. Sure, he saw the cell phone, but not the cell phone plan. Or malware. Or a host of other modern problems that would perplex anyone back in the 1960s.
Clarke has a better track record than most. We love looking at what people thought we’d be doing here in the future.
“Of course, all of this could still happen, and it would be totally spooky if he’d been 100% right.”
invents time machine
This is a bit overrated, I think. I don’t like heroism, either.
Many seem to forget how much an influence sci-fi had on technology.
You don’t need to “predict”, if your readers are essentially implementing it.
Star Trek TOS, Perry Rhodan (and spin-offs such as Atlan), 2001, Space Patrol Orion, Space 1999 etc had inspiried actual engineers at IBM, NASA etc.
Also, X.25 networks did exist by mid-70s. Small-sized glass terminals, too.
X.25 protocol even played a role in early days of Internet, when Europe favored X.25 and the US the TCP/IP.
The German BTX online service was being demonstrated in 1977.
Then still based on Prestel base (UK invention). Minitel was related to it, too.
Of course, the concept was centralized (internet used to be de-centralized).
Though external databases (bank computers, catalogs of mail order companies etc) existed.
Here’s an old news report of IFA 1977, BTX still named “Viewdata”.
That was the British name of the Prestel technology, I think.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lWOo7RcqIJw
Or let me put it this way, by late 60s and early 1970s there already had been RTTY computers in the size of a typewriter.
Such as Tono Theta 7000 (ca. 1975).
https://www.radiomuseum.org/r/tono_theta_7000e7000.html
In the time this interview was done, radio amateurs did send still images over the air via SSTV for years.
An early digital Slow-Scan converter was the Robot 400 (1976).
It used gray code and discreet RAM memory.
Before it, such converters had used storage tube and video camera for conversion to video.
The Yaesu FT-101 compact HF transceiver existed at this time, too.
https://www.qsl.net/kd2bd/sstv.html
In 1972, Silent Running was in the movies.
It showcased early EPROM or ROM technology (the re-programming scene of the robots).
Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p69lEMn0I8k
Also, there was a show such as The Starlost (ca. 1972), which featured AI-like computer terminals.
Scene with the computer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6VEaU4G_e7k
Wait, so it’s not important because without the predictions people might not have been inspired to create these things?
o_O
Hi, I’ve made references that pre-date Clarke’s interview but they aren’t shown yet for whatever reason.
There were other sci-fi authors that made similar “predictions”, also.
The problem I see is that it’s on thin ice in terms of propaganda.
Edison and Clarke are such figures who’re being “hyped” for things that others might consider common sense or simply forwardlooking.
Probably because people needs role-models and heros, that’s human.
Which in turn isn’t bad per se, but it gives the impression that they were super-duper outstanding, while in reality a few hundreds or thousand human beings had similar ideas but weren’t a celebrity, unfortunately, so they’ve ended up bein silent and forgotten.
It’s the sensationalism that’s worrying, in short. I’m not saying Clarke was irrelevant or something.
His novels were interesting, despite some or two plotholes.
I invented Bresenham’s line algorithm based on what I learned in grade 5 and grade 7.
Of course I was a decade late and he had already invented it but I hadn’t been exposed to it.
Many things are dependant on the time and place; but appreciating the foresight of people who both published and popularized such ideas is not a negative.
It does happen. I invented binary output potentiometers while an undergrad.
Oh, I did too when I was about 14! I was so pissed off when I discovered someone had their name to it already
This 1972 novel predicts the Minitel/Prestel/BTX system, basically.
It makes references to the use of ATMs, bank account hacking from home etc.
https://www.perrypedia.de/wiki/Signale_auf_Kanal_acht
BTX was introduced by Intel and only around 2004/2005 to solve issues with ATX mobos and P4 CPUs.
I call BS on some british dude coming up with something to replace ATX when even humble IBM PC wasn’t around yet.
PS. NO KINGS
The Videotex system I meant.
Of the motherboard form factor you must think, I see.
To be fair, that BTX was a German thing.
Although:
“Originally conceived to follow the UK Prestel specifications, and developed on contract by a small UK company called Systems Designers Ltd (originally merged into EDS and now part of HP) for IBM Germany.”
1974, computer on your desk, amazing. 1977, Commodore PET , Apple II, TRS-80 Model I. I’m just Planet of the Apes wasn’t so prescient.
Seeing the west (or the thinktanks that control it) is so hell-bent on starting WW3 right now.. I would hold off on making statements like that about planet of the apes.
He didn’t predict communications satellites, he filed for a patent on geosynchronous communication satellites, basically inventing them! The geosync orbit is sometimes called the Clarke orbit.
Exactly. He noticed a useful mathematical relationship between altitude and ground track, and capitalized on it. In many ways he was a better technologist than author, but I still enjoy his books and don’t want to be (too much of) a hater.
Take a look at his book “Glide Path”. He wrote it first in the 1960s while his memories were extant, it did not sell. Then he editted it and enlarged it in the 1980s, and it sold. It correctly predicted jet fighters.
“It correctly predicted jet fighters.”
Uh, did you completely miss WWII and the Messerschmidt? The X-15? Chuck Yeager? The U-2 (albeit not a fighter aircraft, it was in the news at one point)?
“However, he also thought that we’d enslave other animals, which–mercifully–didn’t come to pass.”
Other apes and dolphins he said right? The Russians have trained dolphins to patrol the water around their stolen land.
Or more correctly, “around the land they have stolen”